The recovery of coal and steel industry is expected to increase, futures rebounded significantly – Sohu finance accompanied by a huge amount of social credit in January, stock investment and real estate prices obviously "hot" up, coal, iron and steel and other commodity futures prices also rebounded significantly. However, the industry said, in the face of slow progress in production capacity, coal, steel as the representative of excess capacity recovery industry is expected to go far, still need to be observed. "After the Spring Festival, the price of steel related to the trend of the company’s stock prices rise day by day, but unfortunately we hoard a little less goods." Wang Sheng, a steel dealer in Shijiazhuang, said that although prices have improved, sales have not improved significantly, and may wait to see. "Shanghai’s housing prices are crazy, the building materials industry still hopes for real estate."." Wang Sheng said. In fact, like Wang Sheng hope and A stock market of iron and steel, cement, coal and other sectors, even the day to increase the forefront, and the iron ore and steel futures prices also rose significantly, which represents investors to industry overcapacity is expected to recover. Wang Jun, President of the founder of the medium-term Research Institute, said that the more obvious cyclical industries, such as coal, steel and so on, were more sensitive to the demand, and that the demand side recovery was expected to be strong. Especially after the introduction of credit data in January, the funds to do more enthusiasm is high. Reporters found that some investors see the January credit record amount of days to be opened by the end of 2008 similar stimulus, although most people can not believe again "4 trillion" effect, but a real estate price — fact also affects people’s investment expectations. Many stock groups, futures groups and other WeChat investment class exchange group recently focused on the property market. Although investors discuss the real estate heat unabated, but in the past two years, such as Wang Sheng, steel, coal intermediate trade dealers less and less, coal, steel prices continued to decline, leading to thinner and thinner enterprise profits, inventories of upstream and downstream enterprises is becoming smaller and smaller. According to the investigation situation of Shanxi Fen Wei Energy Consulting Co., Ltd., at present, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other main producing areas of coal mine inventory is generally low, and because of its serious losses, generally through the production stop to save wages and other expenses. And the inventory of downstream power plants is only about a week on average. Overall, however, the steel and coal industry is still slow to go. Guotai Junan Securities latest estimates show that the steel industry with 5 years to about 10% of production capacity, compared with the "12th Five-Year" period to remove about 90000000 tons of production capacity and no substantive breakthrough. At present, the steel industry overcapacity rate has exceeded 25%, while the demand for downstream products such as steel continues to shrink, the multiplier effect is transferred to the demand for crude steel, overcapacity has the risk of expansion. Guotai Junan Securities said that the coal industry with 3~5 years to go directly to the production capacity of 5 tons, equivalent to about 9% of the current capacity, only 1/3 of excess capacity, while reducing production capacity of 5 tons of reorganization, relative to the direct shut down capacity, relatively weak. Like the iron and steel industry, the demand for coal downstream products continues to shrink, and the impact on the demand for raw coal is in place.
煤炭钢铁行业复苏预期增强 期货近期明显反弹-搜狐理财 伴随1月份社会信贷巨量投放，股票投资和房地产价格明显又“热”起来，煤炭、钢铁等大宗商品期货价格也出现明显反弹。不过，业内人士表示，面对去产能进展缓慢的现状，煤炭、钢铁为代表的过剩产能行业复苏预期能走多远，仍需要观察。 “过完春节，钢材价格就一 相关公司股票走势 天一个价格地上涨了，可惜我们囤的货有点少。”石家庄一位叫王胜的钢材经销商说，尽管价格有所提高，但销售情况并没有明显起色，可能还要再等等看。 “上海的房价都疯了，建材行业对房地产还抱有希望。”王胜说。其实，和王胜一样抱有希望的还有A股市场上钢铁、水泥、煤炭等板块，连日来涨幅位居前列，而铁矿石、钢材等期货价格也出现明显涨幅，这均代表着市场投资者对过剩产能行业复苏的预期。 方正中期研究院院长王骏说，目前上涨较为明显的都是煤炭、钢铁等周期性行业，而且资金对此敏感，对需求端恢复的预期强烈。特别是1月份信贷数据出台后，资金做多热情很高。 记者调查发现，有的投资者把1月信贷创天量视同为开启类似2008年年底的刺激政策，尽管多数人并不认为能再次产生“4万亿”的效果，但一线房地产价格狂飙的事实也在影响着人们的投资预期。不少股票群、期货群等微信投资类交流群近期的关注焦点放在了楼市上。 尽管投资者讨论房地产的热度不减，但这两年来像王胜这样的钢材、煤炭中间贸易经销商越来越少了，煤炭、钢铁价格持续下滑导致企业利润越来越薄，上下游企业存货量越来越小。 根据山西汾渭能源咨询有限公司的调研情况看，目前山西、内蒙等主产地煤矿库存普遍偏低，而且由于自身亏损严重，普遍通过停产来节省工资等费用。而且下游电厂库存也平均仅维持在一个星期左右。 不过整体上看，钢铁、煤炭行业的去产能进展仍然缓慢。国泰君安证券最新测算显示，钢铁行业用5年时间去产能10%左右，相较于“十二五”期间去掉9000多万吨产能并没有实质性突破。目前钢铁行业产能过剩率已超过25%，同时钢材等下游产品的需求持续萎缩，正以乘数效应传递到粗钢需求，产能过剩程度有扩大的风险。 国泰君安证券表示，煤炭行业用3～5年时间直接去产能5亿吨，相当于目前产能的9%左右，仅过剩产能中的三分之一，同时减量重组产能5亿吨，相对于直接关停去产能，力度相对较弱。与钢铁行业一样，煤炭下游产品需求持续萎缩，对于原煤需求的影响在加剧。 方正证券分析师郭磊称，当前去产能的力度远低于预期，可能和年初汇率波动后政策重点有所调整有关。维护人民币资产的预期稳定性成政策要守卫的第一目标。而要维护人民币资产的预期稳定性，需要稳定增长率预期。 其实，这一思路在1月份信贷数据当中也有所体现。央行公开数据显示，去年1月企业债券净融资1863亿，而今年1月暴增至4547亿，同比暴增144%。去年规模工业企业在利润下降2.3%的情况下，企业融资暴增的很大可能性是因为债务展期。 郭磊表示，未来市场风险因素在于政策蕴含的微妙矛盾性，比如金融支持工业与供给侧收缩、高信贷与去杠杆、通胀预期与汇率稳定、库存去化与房价风险，这种矛盾性在目前看来是不够清晰的。相关的主题文章：